Trump killed Iran’s leader. It’s doubtful he has ideas beyond that
Trump has sent a call to arms for the Iranian people to rise up against an unpopular regime. But that regime has thrived on the idea of resistance against overwhelming odds.
How long the US and Israeli air campaign against Iran lasts will, as it should, depend on when the mission’s aim has been achieved. But exactly what that aim is remains somewhat vague. The use of military force is the gravest of decisions a political leader can make, but the justification posted on social media by US President Donald Trump made reference to “imminent threats from the Iranian regime” without saying what those threats were.
The United States ambassador to the United Nations claimed that the mission’s aims were to “dismantle missile capabilities”, “degrade” Iran’s navy, to “disrupt” Iran’s ability to arm proxy forces and to ensure that Iran could not threaten the world with a nuclear weapon.
The real aim of the campaign though, appeared to come at the end of Trump’s video when he said: “Finally, to the great, proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand…when we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.” This was a clear call to arms for the Iranian people with the intent of changing the regime.
There is, however, a disconnect between Trump’s aim for regime change and the ways and means of trying to achieve it. With the US announcement of the death of the 86-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic of Iran’s theocratic succession process is now being tested for only the second time. Given Khamenei’s age, discussions about succession were widespread. But the system for appointing a new leader was certainly not designed for such circumstances. New ground is being traversed and the theocratic governance structure is under unprecedented pressure.
The Iranian Constitution allows for an interim leadership council – the president, the head of the judiciary and a cleric from the Council of Guardians – to assume control until a new Supreme Leader is appointed. There will be the utmost urgency in ensuring the interim arrangement is in place. The regime will understand that it needs to avoid any sense of a power vacuum and that the system’s continuity is assured and advertised.
